Under the hands of exquisite craftsmen, our shower is returning….

New vocab: petabyte. Abbrevation is PB (no J). I thought a terabyte was immense, but a petabyte is 1K terabytes. This tacks onto a scale that starts with a bit, and 8 bits make a byte. Etc. Here’s a great explanation from Wikipedia, and you can see that there are named orders of magnitude MUCH larger than the petabyte.

Access to petabytes of data means analysis must take a different form to accomodate the sheer quantities of information. Writes Chris Anderson in Wired earlier this summer:

At the petabyte scale, information is not a matter of simple three- and four-dimensional taxonomy and order but of dimensionally agnostic statistics. It calls for an entirely different approach, one that requires us to lose the tether of data as something that can be visualized in its totality. It forces us to view data mathematically first and establish a context for it later.

So, here’s how this ramifies into science and the realm of academia:

The scientific method is built around testable hypotheses. These models, for the most part, are systems visualized in the minds of scientists. The models are then tested, and experiments confirm or falsify theoretical models of how the world works. This is the way science has worked for hundreds of years.

Scientists are trained to recognize that correlation is not causation, that no conclusions should be drawn simply on the basis of correlation between X and Y (it could just be a coincidence). Instead, you must understand the underlying mechanisms that connect the two. Once you have a model, you can connect the data sets with confidence. Data without a model is just noise.

But faced with massive data, this approach to science—hypothesize, model, test—is becoming obsolete.

So, this is the paradigm shift Anderson envisions:

There is now a better way. Petabytes allow us to say: “Correlation is enough.” We can stop looking for models. We can analyze the data without hypotheses about what it might show. We can throw the numbers into the biggest computing clusters the world has ever seen and let statistical algorithms find patterns where science cannot.

In other words, we used to employ models because data were lacking or we only had samples. Now, Anderson, says, we actually have closer to the universe of data, hence there no longer is a need for a model to guestimate the gaps.

I confess, I’m still trying to figure out how I might operationalize this (or archaeologists who are smarter than me might)…. Ideas?

Archive photo from several summers back, in northern Michigan, and, no, I don’t know what kind it is….

So, which is it?

When opening a can of, say, beans, I always wipe the top of the can off before engaging the can opener.

I don’t know what this plant is—maybe an extremely tall coleus?

Over-hyped: the Biden VP announcement. Sorry, he’s a solid choice, but the 24-hr news cycle is overfocused on topics that are easy to cover. And rehash. And talk about some more. As usual. Consider the many wars underway. Human atrocities. Economic nightmares. Carbon footprints. Those are worth constructive discussion and planning 24/7. And don’t get it, of course, sadly….

Not over-hyped: Bryan Clay, winner of the 2008 Olympic decathalon. That means ten events over two (or is it three?) days, folks, ranging from foot races to jumps to throws of long and round objects.*

In my book, that means he’s a real Olympian. And deserving of more hype than I predict he’ll get.

* Sorry. I wanted to report Clay’s total points, but the NBC page links are so lame that I can’t find it.

The way it was…. Below right: the way it is now….

We lost our ability to walk through walls this morning. That is a good thing!

FYI, our powers were not related to a wireless resonant energy link (now courtesy Intel).

Brace yourself: rant coming….

There’s an Enron II now, in the sense that one firm has held something like 11% of extant oil contracts through the recent price run-up. The firm is called Vitol, and the Wash Post says it’s Swiss-owned—and private (wonder what that means?). Here’s more:

CFTC documents show Vitol was one of the most active traders of oil on NYMEX as prices reached record levels. By June 6, for instance, Vitol had acquired a huge holding in oil contracts, betting prices would rise. The contracts were equal to 57.7 million barrels of oil — about three times the amount the United States consumes daily. That day, the price of oil spiked $11 to settle at $138.54. Oil prices eventually peaked at $147.27 a barrel on July 11 before falling back to settle at $114.98 yesterday.

The documents do not say how much Vitol put down to acquire this position, but under NYMEX rules, the down payment could have been as little as $1 billion, with the company borrowing the rest.

This is how our gov’t regulators—the CFTC or Commodity Futures Trading Commission—oversee things. Your tax dollars at work, and all that.

But wait! There’s more:

In the coming months, swap dealers expect to have yet another venue for oil speculation. The CFTC has stated it would not stand in the way of trading in U.S. oil contracts overseas in Dubai. Goldman Sachs and Vitol are among the major investors in this new exchange.

Watch your pocketbook! This can’t be good for any of us leetle peepull.

This rebuilding project has been an adventure in learning about new building products.

The smeary stuff on the windows is the modern way to cope with the paint/glass interface. They put this stuff on, and it drys into a skin, then, after the paint is dried, make a clean cut along the glass/frame inteface and peel it away like skin two days after a bad sunburn.

If I’d only known about this magic stuff last summer when I was painting all those windows on the cottage! Well, actually, I have to finish them whenever we get back up there, so, voila! A new technique!*

* Reminder to self: ask The Guys what this most excellent Stuff is called!

UPDATE: it’s called Masking Liquid H2O, and costs something like $60/gallon, at least to our contractor, but it doesn’t take much, so maybe they sell half-pints for those of us with small jobs.

Really. These people had their house BURN. In the middle of the night. [They got out—ya can't say “okay” because who would be okay having to leave your house-afire in the wee hours of the morning?]

We are so lucky!

NB: You cannot see the photo above.*

We owe JL via Bobbin-El a big thanks for the opportunity to escape from The Construction Zone last night and hear some live music at an unnamed outdoor venue in the northern ’burbs. Just a treat!

* Due to various (basically indefensible) regulations (in the days of phone-cameras and other teeny cameras), the above picture was never taken.

The window action this week means that the shower window is coming back. This is the exterior (fixed) glass (as yet unwashed), and the interior will have a leaded piece by Pat Vloebergs that miraculously survived the tree-fall undamaged.

And this is the view back at a massive shade-tree that remains (thankfully). Very healthy, the arborist reported to our neighbors. It’s a tulip poplar, too, and not an oak, like the house-stalker that harbored hidden butt rot.

We knew we didn’t want to go back to fiberglass (or whatever they use now) batts for insulation, and after much on-line research, and chit-chatting amongst ourselves, we went with Soy Therm 50.

Soy Therm 50 spray-foam insulation is innovative, environmentally friendly and made with Soyol, USSC’s patented, soy-based polyol technology. It is an open-celled, water-blown, rigid polyurethane insulating foam that contains no ozone-depleting chemicals, VOCs, formaldehyde or asbestos. It expands upon application to fill all voids and cracks, and can save significantly on heating and cooling costs. At a density of 1/2 lb. per cu. ft., this is an excellent rigid foam insulation product for commercial and residential use.

…says the United Soybean Board web page….

And this is what it looks like part way through the process. You may be able to tell that the foam is applied against the outside of the house/roof, so everything—at least in new construction—inside of the outside walls would be “interior” relative to the insulation. And, bonus!, this means the house is much better sealed, especially against insects and other critter infestations. Even though we’re just able to have this on part of the upstairs, I think it’ll make a huge difference. Yes, we’re paying more, but I think we’ll be happier with our living situation (yea!, more storage! and more storage that’s insulated!).

Really, we now have three fine, matching dormers, with new and better (and matching) windows (not yet sealed, though). We feel like the house is truly coming back (if viewed from the exterior, anyway)*. I do like the new shingle color….

* Is today national parentheses day?